2026 Election predictions (part 1)

Election season is almost upon us. It seems to come earlier and earlier every year (indeed, this year it will come early in Colorado - in 2024, the first ballots were mailed Oct. 11 and this year the process begins Oct. 2).

In this post, I'll register my expectations for the statewide and federal offices. In a future post, I'll make some predictions about the state legislature and the slew of ballot initiatives that will make up this year's ballot (2026 will tie a decades old record set in 2006 and then matched in both 2008 and 2024 for the total number of ballot initiatives).

Overall, I am very bullish on Democrats' chances in this election. It would be extremely surprising if any Democratic incumbents lost their races, and based on what I've seen, I believe Democrats have a real chance to pick up at least two U.S. House seats in Colorado and possibly three.

The statewide races

Colorado has become a reliably blue state, and there is no reason to expect anything different from the top of the ticket this year.

Governor (near certain Democratic win)

Phil Weiser is all but assured to win the governor's race in November. Victor Marx's campaign has been truly bizarre, and his, let's say, "unorthodox" approach to campaign finance could put him into actual legal trouble beyond fines and might cross the line into criminal fraud. The question becomes how big Weiser's victory will be. Polis won his first election for governor in 2018 by more than a 10-point margin, and he ran up that total in 2022 defeating Ganahl by nearly 20 points. Given Marx's weakness as a candidate, and the overall environment for Democrats this year, I'm tempted to say that a 20-point margin is near the floor of what we should expect for Weiser.

Other statewide offices (Democratic sweep)

It has been more than 10 years since Republicans have held any statewide, executive offices in Colorado (in 2014, Coloradans elected John Hickenlooper to the top of the ticket while also electing Republicans as Secretary of State, Attorney General and State Treasurer). That seems like a different world from the one we are living in today, and a divided executive like we've seen in the not too distant past is unimaginable this year. I expect the margins will be somewhat closer than the blowout that is expected in the governor's race, but Democrats should sweep the executive offices once again.

U.S. Senate (Democratic hold)

Despite John Hickenlooper's weaker than expected showing in the primary against Julie Gonzales, there is no reason to expect that the general election will be particularly close. Hickenlooper was first elected in 2020, defeating the last Republican senator to have represented Colorado (Cory Gardner) by a nearly 10-percentage point margin. As of the end of June campaign finance report, Hickenlooper had about 40 times the total cash on hand headed into the general election.

U.S. House

This year is looking to be a very good year for Democrats nationwide, and there is no reason to believe that the story in Colorado will be any different.

CD-01 (Democratic hold)

Political newcomer, Melat Kiros should easily win this deep blue seat in Denver. Her primary victory was unexpected by many, but no one really believes she will have any trouble in the general election.

CD-02 (Democratic hold)

Joe Neguse will win reelection in the second district. His Republican opponent has reported raising exactly $0 as of June 30, and his seat is comfortably Democratic.

CD-03 (possible Democratic pickup)

Republican incumbent Jeff Hurd is facing a challenge from Dwayne Romero. Most political observers rate this seat as a likely Republican hold, but the national conditions are very, very bad for Republicans this year, and it is not outside the realm of possibility that Romero narrowly wins this seat. The national raters have been overly conservative (with a small 'c') in the past. I'm willing to say that I think the odds are better than not that Romero wins this seat despite his large fundraising disadvantage.

CD-04 (likely Republican hold)

Lauren Boebert is in an unusual position. She represents the most solidly Republican district in Colorado, but she has been outraised by a factor of 10 by her Democratic challenger, Eileen Laubacher. Boebert has had something of a fall from whatever kind of MAGA grace she has enjoyed in the past, but that distance from Trump may be an asset to her in this political environment. Some of the raters have downgraded her seat from a "Solid" or "Strong" Republican seat to merely a "Likely" Republican hold. This is one case where I think the raters are basically right.

CD-05 (likely Democratic pickup)

Jeff Crank is facing a very difficult race from Democrat, Jessica Killin. As of the June 30 campaign finance filing, the two candidates were about evenly matched in terms of cash on hand, and Killin had raised about $1M more than her opponent. National organizations are now getting involved, and if a Democrat is ever going to win this seat (and to be clear, in its entire existence, a Democrat has never won this seat), this is the year.

CD-06 (Democratic hold)

Jason Crow will win reelection in this seat. Like the second district, Crow's opponent has not raised any money and is not a serious challenger.

CD-07 (Democratic hold)

Pettersen's Republican opponent has raised more than $0 but not much (the June 30 report shows he has $1,325 cash on hand to Pettersen's $1.1M). She will easily hold this seat.

CD-08 (near certain Democratic pickup)

Republican incumbent, Gabe Evans is fighting for control of one of the most closely divided congressional districts in the country, and he will almost certainly lose it in this environment. Manny Rutinel is outgunned on the campaign finance front, but national groups are spending a great deal in this district, and ultimately, I believe national conditions will be the deciding factor.