2026 Elections: Initial thoughts
Some results are still being counted, but it is late as I'm writing this. As they say, "I've seen enough." Democrats have had a very good night so far. They will certainly take the House and a majority of seats in the Senate. The sizes of these majorities are yet to be seen, but this was nothing less than a political earthquake.
Statewide and federal races
(See my statewide and federal predictions here)
No big surprises here. As expected, Democrats swept the statewide races. As I'm writing this, Weiser's margin sits at a comfortable 25(!) points over his historically low-quality opponent with more than 80% of the vote counted. The other statewide races show somewhat narrower margins, but there are none where Republicans put up a serious showing.
As of this writing (~10pm), it seems as though Democrats will flip at least two House seats (the 8th and the 5th) and they are leading in the other two seats that are represented by Republicans (the 3rd and 4th).
State legislative races
(see my predictions for the state legislature here)
The state legislative races will trickle in more slowly, but given the statewide totals and the coattails that many Democrats in the state legislature, I expect that Democrats will expand their majorities in both the upper and lower chambers.
Ballot measures
(see my predictions for the 2026 ballot measures here)
The ballot measures where were my predictions were most off base. I wasn't completely off in my expectations. At least as of this writing, some of the silliest measures seem to have gone down (which I expected): Amendment 82 (the right to buy and sell natural gas), Amendment 83 (constitutional right to hunt and fish), Amendment 84 (voter ID for mail ballots).
Amendment 81 (mandating coordination between state law enforcement and federal immigration enforcement) is also trailing significantly. I also expected Amendment 85 (the plain language ballot questions) a to have better chance at passing, and it is leading very narrowly (by less than 1 point). I also expected Coloradans to reject the end-run around the temporary redistricting plan (Amendment 86) which they appear to have done.
I expected Proposition NN to pass (the funding stopgap) to pass, and it is also on track.
The places where I was most wrong were Propositions 134 and 135 (the ballot measures focused on transgender issues) which are performing much better than I expected. As of 10pm, the "yes" vote is leading narrowly on both of these measures. I also expected Amendment 87 (the measure that would institute a more progressive tax) to pass by a comfortable margin. As of right now, the vote is very close.
