What to watch for in the 2026 primary elections
A few things that I'll be watching as election results come in next week.
The June 30th primary election will likely decide several races in Colorado. It is unlikely that the Republicans will be competitive in several congressional districts or statewide in November, so the winners of the Democratic primary are all but assured to win their general elections in November.
A few things that I will be looking for as the results come in:
- Turnout overall: While overall turnout in primary elections is not always a totally reliable indicator of success in the November general election, it is one measure of voter enthusiasm. Primary and special elections since 2025 have seen dramatic increases in turnout over what is typical. The overall turnout in the primaries will be another signal as to the relative enthusiasm of voters in Colorado.
- Margins in key races:
- Governor (R): Based on the fundraising numbers, Marx seems like the clear favorite in this race. The size of his margin will say something about the state of the Republican Party in Colorado. Kirkmeyer is no moderate, but she certainly is playing the role of the more conventional, establishment candidate in this race.
- CD-1: After the recent upset victories of DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) candidates in New York City earlier this month, many will be watching Melat Kiros's challenge to Dianna DeGette as a sign of how the left flank might perform in Colorado. DeGette is a favorite in the race, but if Kiros can win a substantial share of the vote in this extremely blue district, it may be a sign of a bigger fight to come between Colorado progressives and more establishment figures within the Colorado Democratic Party. As in other races around the country, the DSA has been focusing its energy in organizing canvassers and building out their institutional strength. Even if they are not successful in unseating the 13-term incumbent, a strong performance here might be the seed of a more durable movement.
- CD-8: The race between Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird in CO-8 will be another test of the progressive/moderate divide in the Colorado Democratic Party. Rutinel has positioned himself somewhat to the left of Bird, but the more important distinction between these two candidates seems to be dispositional. Rutinel is portraying himself as more of a "fighter" to Bird's more pragmatic orientation. Either candidate has a good chance against incumbent Republican Gabe Evans, but the choice from voters in this swingiest of Colorado districts may be an indication of the direction of the Democratic Party in the state.
